Matthew “Nadeshot” Haag spent approximately $15,000 opening Counter-Strike cases during a three-day streaming marathon with disastrous results. The 100 Thieves founder and CEO walked away with just two valuable items worth around $150 each, amounting to a mere $300 return on his massive investment.
The case opening spree saw Nadeshot purchasing and opening hundreds of virtual loot boxes in CS2 (formerly CS:GO), each requiring a paid key to unlock. These cases contain cosmetic weapon skins of varying rarity, with the most valuable items having extremely low drop rates.
Despite opening case after case for hours on end, Nadeshot experienced what viewers described as “possibly the worst case luck ever seen.” The odds of getting premium items like knives are notoriously low—estimated at around 0.25% per case—but Nadeshot’s results were particularly brutal even by those standards.
Counter-Strike‘s case system works by having players purchase both the case itself and a key to open it, typically costing $2–5 per attempt. The rarest skins can sell for over a million dollars on the Steam Marketplace, creating a lottery-like economy that drives massive profits for game developer Valve.
While most gamers would be gutted by losing that kind of cash, things work differently for big-name content creators. Well-known streamers can make good money through ads, subscriptions, and donations during these marathon sessions—sometimes even earning more than they lose.
Case opening setups are still a big topic in the gaming world because they’re so much like gambling. The random rewards and shot at landing a high-value item offer a rush that’s not too different from slot machines, and they’re easy for younger players to get into.
For Nadeshot, the disappointing unboxing worked as both a show for his audience and a clear warning about just how much the odds are stacked against anyone hoping to score big in the world of virtual item gambling.
