The post-International shuffle has finally reached a real stage. Twelve teams are playing online for a title that nobody holds with a fresh roster, and 1win Essence III was already pushed back once because squads weren’t ready. A former BetBoom core is back under a new tag, a streamer is filling in at mid for 1w Team, and the group stage has just started.
Pass on Team Spirit. Polymarket is the only venue listing this winner market, and it makes Spirit the favorite at 45%, with Team Liquid next at 38% and PARIVISION third at 31%. Our own estimate is 43%, close enough that the price looks fair. Total volume is $21,000.
Spirit’s case is real: They won the PARI Universe final three maps to none and have won their last five series. But Liquid are the defending champions after sweeping Falcons in the 1win Essence II Grand Final. Several rivals are untested, since LGD Gaming’s lineup has played only two events together and LEGION is reportedly playing its first event as this group. With a double-elimination playoff, a best-of-five final, and only eight of twelve teams advancing, one bad series can end a run.
1win Essence III winner odds on Polymarket
| Outcome | Polymarket | 7-day move |
|---|---|---|
| Team Spirit | 45¢ | down 18 pts |
| Team Liquid | 38¢ | — |
| PARIVISION | 31¢ | — |
| GamerLegion | 4¢ | down 1 pt |
| Aurora Gaming | 2¢ | down 20 pts |
| BetBoom Team | 2¢ | flat |
| LGD Gaming | 2¢ | flat |
| 1w Team | under 1¢ | down 13 pts |
Spirit’s price is sliding
Spirit’s price is down 18 points over the week and down 6 points over the last day. GamerLegion is down 1 point, Aurora Gaming is down 20 points, and 1w Team is down 13 points. LGD Gaming and the BetBoom Team outcome haven’t moved. The group stage opened with Spirit facing 1w Team, whose stand-in mid is playing his first top-level event.
What would change our call
- Team Spirit beating 1w Team in the group opener, with the stand-in mid struggling, would lift their chance and could make it a Back on Team Spirit at these prices.
- Team Spirit losing its group series against Froglings would cut their chance and could make it a Fade on Team Spirit at these prices.
How it resolves
Polymarket: It resolves to the winner of 1win Essence III, an online European Dota tournament organized by BASED Esports. If the event is postponed past the postponement deadline in the rules, is canceled, or has no declared winner by then, it resolves to “Other.” If several teams are declared winner, the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically wins. The source is official information from BASED Esports / 1win Essence, and credible reporting such as Liquipedia may also be used. The rules don’t mention team name changes. Polymarket settles it by November 20 at the latest.
