Four teams are left at AsiaWorld-Expo in Hong Kong, and all of them want to walk into the Major with a trophy. FURIA are the defending champions, and Falcons carry the Major crown they won in Cologne against FURIA. MOUZ arrived as IEM Beijing winners, and Spirit took a direct semi-final spot. Vitality, the season’s trophy leader, are already off to a bootcamp.
Our call is Pass. Polymarket is the only venue listing this market, with $168,000 traded, and it makes MOUZ the favorite at 32%. Spilled’s own estimate is 29%, which leaves no clear gap between our number and the market’s.
The case for MOUZ is real. They beat Spirit on both maps at PGL Masters Bucharest in October, and Spirit is their semi-final opponent. They also swept Vitality in the quarter-finals. But the groups showed cracks: MOUZ opened with a loss to G2 and trailed FUT badly on Mirage, one round from elimination, before winning the series. FURIA sit at 24% and Falcons at 22%, while Spirit trade at 27%. After beating G2, NiKo said of FURIA: “They are playing very well at this moment.”
BLAST Rivals Hong Kong 2026 winner odds on Polymarket
| Outcome | Polymarket | 7-day move |
|---|---|---|
| MOUZ | 32¢ | up 6 pts |
| Spirit | 27¢ | up 4 pts |
| FURIA | 24¢ | up 5 pts |
| Falcons | 22¢ | up 9 pts |
MOUZ’s price gets a quarter-final glow-up
MOUZ’s price is up 6 points over the week and up 22 points over the last day, which fits the clean win over Vitality. FURIA is up 5 points on the week after beating Vitality to reach the semi-finals directly. Falcons is up 9 points on the day after knocking out G2, and Spirit is up 4 points on the week after winning its group.
What would change our call
- MOUZ beating Spirit in the semi-final would lift their chance, since they would reach the best-of-five grand final, and at these prices that would make it a Back on MOUZ.
- FURIA beating Falcons in the other semi-final would hand MOUZ the defending champions in a possible final, and at these prices that would make it a Fade on MOUZ.
How it resolves
Polymarket: It resolves to the winner of the tournament. The rules name HLTV as the source, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the tournament is postponed past the deadline in the rules, is canceled, or no winner is declared in that window, the market resolves to “Other.” If several teams are declared winner, it resolves for the team whose name comes first alphabetically. Polymarket settles it by November 17 at the latest.
