Falcons walked out of Cologne as Major champions, and every top team has spent the months since trying to take that crown. Now thirty-two teams head to the Singapore Indoor Stadium for the last Major of 2026. Vitality won the last December Major in Budapest, MOUZ arrive fresh from a clean sweep in Beijing, and FURIA keep finding ways to beat the best. Somebody lifts the trophy after a best-of-five grand final.
Our call is a Pass on Vitality at this price. Polymarket is the only venue listing this market, and $398,000 has been traded there so far. Our estimate of 24% sits inside the spread. Yes on Vitality costs 27¢, too much for our estimate, and No at 74¢ isn’t cheap enough either, so neither side has an edge.
Vitality have real claims. They’re second in Valve’s world ranking, they won the 2025 December Major, and ZywOo, flameZ, mezii, and ropz are all still in the lineup. But apEX plays in place of jL, and Vitality lost to FUT in Bucharest in October. FURIA are third in the ranking, beat Vitality on a map by a shutout at BLAST Rivals, and then swept Falcons, the defending champions, in the semifinal.
PGL Major Singapore 2026 winner odds on Polymarket
| Outcome | Polymarket | 7-day move |
|---|---|---|
| Vitality | 27¢ | down 2 pts |
| MOUZ | 18¢ | up 1 pt |
| Spirit | 16¢ | down 1 pt |
| FURIA | 15¢ | up 7 pts |
| Falcons | 10¢ | down 1 pt |
| Natus Vincere | 7¢ | flat |
| FUT | 2¢ | down 1 pt |
| BetBoom | 2¢ | down 1 pt |
Vitality slips while the chasers climb
Over the week Vitality is down 2 points, and over the last day it is down 3 points. The reasons are easy to see in Hong Kong, where FURIA beat Vitality in the groups and MOUZ knocked them out in the quarterfinals before losing to Spirit. MOUZ is up 1 point over the week after sweeping The MongolZ in the Beijing final without dropping a map. FURIA is up 7 points over the week and up 5 points over the last day, helped by its run to the BLAST final.
What would change our call
- If FURIA or MOUZ goes out before the playoffs, Vitality’s path gets easier and its chance rises, which would make it a Back on Vitality at these prices.
- If Vitality loses its first series in the last group stage with apEX in the lineup, its chance drops, which would make it a Fade on Vitality at these prices.
How it resolves
Polymarket: The market resolves to the team that wins the PGL Major Singapore 2026. HLTV is the named source, though the rules say a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the event is postponed past the deadline in the rules, is canceled, or has no declared winner by then, it resolves to “Other.” If several teams are declared winner, the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically takes it. Polymarket settles it by December 15 at the latest.
